We are told today that new cases of HIV are less than predicted, in fact 6 million fewer, according to latest figures just published.
This is a timely update, with World AIDS Day coming up on 1 December.
It has to be good news if there are fewer cases, but what exactly does this mean? The UN AIDS fighting agency has said that it has overstated H.I.V. cases by millions, and that new infections with the deadly virus have been dropping each year since they peaked in the late 1990s.
The agency, Unaids, believes that fewer people are infected worldwide, that the figure is down to 33.2 million from the 39.5 million it estimated late last year.
The statistical changes are said to reflect more accurate surveys, particularly in India and some African countries. Some epidemiologists have criticised for years the way estimates were made.
However, these HIV figures show that the number of people living in the UK with HIV has trebled over the last 10 years, that numbers are still increasing:
People living with HIV:
- More than 70,000 people living with HIV in the UK
- One in three people with HIV are undiagnosed
- One in every 450 pregnant women in the UK is HIV positive
New HIV cases in 2005:
- 7,450 new diagnoses in the UK in 2005
- 2,356 new diagnoses among men who have sex with men
- 3,691 new diagnoses among people from black and minority ethnic communities
All figures from the Health Protection Agency report: A Complex Picture- HIV and other Sexually Transmitted Infections in the UK.
My concern is that the reduced figures will lead to complacency. Despite the revised estimates, the epidemic remains one of the great scourges of mankind. This latest analysis predicts that 2.1 million people died of AIDS in the last year, and 2.5 million were newly infected — or about 6,800 every day.
Although new infections have dropped, the number of people with the disease is growing because more people infected with H.I.V. are living longer, thanks to antiretroviral drugs.
It’s a great credit to science that new drugs are helping those infected. But education and support clearly needs to be maintained.
While Western society has developed some effective therapies that are saving countless lives — it is amazing the number of people with HIV that doesn’t develop into full-blown AIDS, which certainly wasn’t the case in the early years.
However, the realities of SE Asia and Africa (especially Africa) are entirely different. Here we are looking at generations that are going to be devastated on the scale that will make the Medieval bubonic plague pale in comparison.
Worthy to remind people of reality, and thank you.
I, too, immediately thought of Africa and I take Ian’s point above.
Complacency is certainly a danger in the west.
Debate is what needs to be done, followed by actions.
While complacency is a dragon to be feared, you’re not going to worry about it unless the disease itself ‘remits’. As long as people in influence still get AIDS then you will have the proper outrage for it.
On your statistics. 1 in 3 people with HIV are undiagnosed tells me that they are STILL estimating HIGH on HIV/AIDS. You can’t ecunumically (sp?) have a person with HIV undiagnosed and you KNOW it.
If 1 out of every 3 cases is suspected then you’d have to drop the counts for infected persons by 1/3.
AIDS is still a terrible problem and needs to be addressed and continue high profile of its dangers. This is yet another example of numbers being misquoted in the last week. Somebody is even worse at maths at me but at least I’m not a statistician!
Hi Elle, don’t know what to make of this one
Since at the same time we suspect most people with HIV in the UK (and Europe) do not necessarily know they are carriers. What is the estimate – that half of the uk will be carriers by twenty … something
Has someone tested each and everyone of the one billion plus people in India, or we still just talking estimates … estimates can be wildly out, either way.
“One in every 450 pregnant women in the UK is HIV positive”
That is a really shocking statistic.
Families in Africa where the main carer is a child because all the adults have died from AIDS wouldn’t really care whether the figures are up or down, I suppose.
Is Edinburgh still the worst place for AIDS in the UK?