The deputy editor of a political magazine based North of Iraq has emailed me some questions regarding the future of his country, with an emphasis on Kurdistan, the language in which it is printed.
Farhad M. Hassan has also interviewed experts from Chatham House and the Council on Foreign Relations for his weekly publication. I thought it would be helpful to include your views too, so please feel free to respond to any of the questions. An English version of the Gulan media website is under construction, so you may be able to see your published there in the near future:
1- All events, opinions, and analyses of all experts indicated that Bush’s new strategy in Iraq will fail, so here I ask how do you see Iraq ’s future?
2- In this bad situation, Kurdistan is a stable region, if He decided for independence as you did, we know that Kurdistan have been rounded by enemies, you are also rounded by enemies, how could you protect your self we want you to tell us your opinion for Kurdistan to protect himself.
3- Iran with USA are about to pass into new level, and they are about to face each other, so do you think that Iraqi land will become a battle field of USA war with Iran ?
4- Turkey now is convinced that he can not involve in Iraqi internal affairs, and now he requests dialogue with Iraqi Kurdistan leaders, so do you think that Turkey idea will get over military staff in turkey?
* Turkey is regional super power country in Middle East, and has lots effects on the area, he is the most important neighbor country to Iraq, so here I ask what role can turkey play in developing democracy and economy of the area?
*Turkey has direct contact with Kurdistan region in Iraq, so Turkey should have a establish this relation?good and friendly relation with Iraqi Kurds, so do you think that turkey will be able to
5- Now Iraq has reached the level that winning of USA in this area is impossible, so now they think just to obstruct disasters from happening, so now Iraq is about to face a humanitarian disaster, and in this situation International community can not keep silent with out caring, so how can International community be helpful in the situation?
6- Many experts think that the former Yugoslavia’s scenario is repeating in Iraq, in this situation Iraq will be separated into three different states, we know that Shitta area will be supported by Iran, and Sunni area will be supported by all Arab states, in this situation Kurds will remain lonely, so in the case of separation of Iraq in to those three states, can Kurds depend on USA? Or how shall Kurds behave?
7- Iraqi division is already a disaster for the whole region, if Iraq divided, is there any other alternative plans from International community for preventing the chaos in the whole area?
8- Iraqi Kurdistan region contains 6% of world’s stored oil, now Kurdistan region situation is stable, so if violence reached into Kurdistan region, the oil price will increase and it will effect world’s economy, how international community will be helpful in preventing this situation from happening?
9-What’s your recommendation for Kurdish leaders to do in this situation and to protect the Kurdistan region in current situation?
Farhad M. Hassan
Deputy editor in chief
Gulan political weekly magazine
Firstly Turkey may not be currently beligerant towards the Kurdish areas of Iraq, but that does not mean that it will accept a seperate Kurdish state. Also Iran has a Kurdish region as does Syria. They won’t be happy either.
Kurdish Iraq may have oil, but if it’s neighbours are hostile to it, then it will not be able to get it out.
The breakup or indeed breakdown of Iraq is not inevitable. Mind you, staying as one country is not inevitable either.
The Shia region of Iraq may be allied with Iran, if so this will cause huge problems across the region from Saudi Arabia to Syria and beyond.
Will the USA support the Kurds in Nothern Iraq. Maybe for now, but it is hard to tell what they will do in a few presidents time.
Get into bed with the Turks _ they are the only party big enough and local enough to guarantee the security of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Negotiate with them the terms upon which they would be prepared to see an independent kurdistan on their borders. Invite them to be guarantors of your security, offer them bases on your borders with Iran and ‘Shiastan’. Give them a favourable terms oil treaty, ship all your oil out via Turkey, assist the Turks in prosecuting any Kurdish terrorism in Turkey, accept a relationship with Turkey akin to that of Turkish Cyprus.
David Allen makes a number of accurate points. However, I can’t imagine the Kurds in Northern Iraq ever agreeing to a Turkish military presence in the area nor a “client-state” relationship such as that which exists between Turkey and Northern Cyprus.
In more general terms, the political future of Northern Iraq or Iraqi Kurdistan is of immediate and overwhelming concern for the Turks. The Turks believe (rightly in my view) that the Iraqi Kurds and the US-led Coalition will eventually conspire to create a Kurdish state. The question is also a particularly grave one for the US which needs to maintain positive relations with both the Kurds and Turkey. Both the Kurds and Turkey have, to put it mildly, strikingly different, irreconcilable views on the future of Northern Iraq.
My view from Istanbul is that Turkey will not hesitate to enter Northern Iraq while the PKK operates from the area to attack Turkish security forces and civilians inside Turkey. Clearly, the current political administration in Northern Iraq does not have the political will and military strength to eliminate PKK bases in Northern Iraq.If Northern Iraq is to have a viable future, the rival Kurdish factions would be well advised to unite (for once) and wipe out the PKK before Turkey does the job for them. That day may not be far away…
There is a historical parallel here.
In 1878, Bulgaria won autonomy from Turkey, largely due to Russian pressure.
The Armenians then began to hope that the same could happen for them.
Except of course, that a third of Armenia was in the Russian Empire.
The Russians weren’t going to fuel a nationa;ist movement which could one day lay claim to part of their teritory.
Ironically, it is the Russian portion which is independent today, the larger portion remaining in Turkey.
The Kurds have the same problem.
Getting independence from one poer is easy. ‘England’s danger is Ireland’s opportunity’.
To get independence from two depends on them BOTH being down at the same time/
The poles were lucky that WWI led to defeat for Germany and Austro Hungary, at the same time as seeing the collapse of Tsarist Russia. That was a stroke of luck that is rarely repeated.
The Turks will do everything in their power to stop a Kurdish state.
1- All events, opinions, and analyses of all experts indicated that Bush’s new strategy in Iraq will fail, so here I ask how do you see Iraq’s future?
Iraq must be stabalised and turned into a NATO-friendly oil-producing puppet. This will probably mean the need for a ‘strongman’ government at some point in the future to purge the country of those who seek to threaten and destroy the peaceful transition from enemy of the NATO to friend of NATO. I think the USA will begin pulling out after the Democrats win the next US election, then there will be a period of violence where the insurgencies are crushed using strongarm tactics. This period will be vital, there is the danger that full-scale civil war will break out and divide the nation. If this becomes the case the NATO will covertly support whatever side it believes best represent the maintainence of it’s interests whilst the Russia/Iran axis do their best to scupper this.
2- In this bad situation, Kurdistan is a stable region, if He decided for independence as you did, we know that Kurdistan have been rounded by enemies, you are also rounded by enemies, how could you protect your self we want you to tell us your opinion for Kurdistan to protect himself.
This is a difficult one. The Kurdistan region does have a major oil field. If NATO troops begin withdrawing from Iraq it is imperitive that Kurdish forces are able to defend this territory from both the militants of Al-Qaeda that will pursue a ‘wrecking’ agenda and the Russia/Iran sponsored insurgants that will try to take strategic control. In the event of civil war Kurdistan will need weapons to defend this territory. In the absence of more powerful allies Kurdistans’ best option might be to start talks with Turkey, who will have a vested interest in the civil war not spreading into their region. Turkey are tied to the USA in terms of allegiance, however if Turkey can be persuded to supply weapons in return for the Kurdish leaderships guarantee that Turkey’s borders will be respected and anti-Turkish militants controlled this might be a good bet – difficult – but remember my enemies enemy is my friend. If full-scale civil war does break out after NATO troops are gone I doubt the USA will become overtly involved until the direction of events becomes clear. It is worth remembering that none of the sides in an Iraqi civil war will have air power. If Iran join in they run the risk of the US trashing all their jets with the F-22. Can you guys persude the Turks to supply a few old fighter/bombers? If so that might give you an edge.
3- Iran with USA are about to pass into new level, and they are about to face each other, so do you think that Iraqi land will become a battle field of USA war with Iran ?
I doubt the USA will attack Iran, this is more of a cold-war, with Russia helping the Iranians get nuked up and the USA shaking its fist. The Democrats now control both US houses and the American people have lost their appetite for war. The $100+ oil prices that would ensue would also be unpopular in influencial circles. In the event of a US attack on Iran, Iran would most certainly retailiate on the ground in Iraq however. If the USA did attack Iran it would bomb the airfields then take out any fighters they put in the air as quickly as possible using their superior aircraft. There are movements in the USA that want the F-22 Raptor to ‘go to war’. However the F-15 and F-16 aircraft they have there already would not have too much trouble with the Iranian’s outdated fighters. Iran’s air power would be crushed within a couple of days and they would only have ground options, and SAM’s left to get back at the US. A US attack on Iran would probably prokoke widespread conflict in Iraq, but is unlikely.
4- Turkey now is convinced that he can not involve in Iraqi internal affairs, and now he requests dialogue with Iraqi Kurdistan leaders, so do you think that Turkey idea will get over military staff in turkey?
They want a buffer zone, they want to secure their borders and prevent any Kurdish terror in their country. Get them to arm you when the USA pulls out.
5- Now Iraq has reached the level that winning of USA in this area is impossible, so now they think just to obstruct disasters from happening, so now Iraq is about to face a humanitarian disaster, and in this situation International community can not keep silent with out caring, so how can International community be helpful in the situation?
Very difficult to bus food and medicine into a war zome if it does kick off. The fact of the matter is countries like Iran, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will have to be prepared to take large numbers of refugees.
6- Many experts think that the former Yugoslavia’s scenario is repeating in Iraq, in this situation Iraq will be separated into three different states, we know that Shitta area will be supported by Iran, and Sunni area will be supported by all Arab states, in this situation Kurds will remain lonely, so in the case of separation of Iraq in to those three states, can Kurds depend on USA? Or how shall Kurds behave?
Make peace with Turkey and EU states, try to get arms, secure the major oilfield and stay out of the Sunni/Shia war that ensues.
7- Iraqi division is already a disaster for the whole region, if Iraq divided, is there any other alternative plans from International community for preventing the chaos in the whole area?
Other countries will not want to get fully drawn into a full-scale Sunni / Shia Middle-East war. The fact of the matter is the only way to prevent a civil war for certain is to keep NATO troops in there until Iraq can take care of it’s own security. You have to admire Bush for flying in the face of the popularists in the USA that wanted to pull out and sending more troops to try and get the situation stable. I wouldn’t trust Iran and Syria if I were him either.
8- Iraqi Kurdistan region contains 6% of world’s stored oil, now Kurdistan region situation is stable, so if violence reached into Kurdistan region, the oil price will increase and it will effect world’s economy, how international community will be helpful in preventing this situation from happening?
Like you say, the bankers hate inflation and won’t fancy oil prices surging above $100 a barrell. I think the Kurds have to start making deals with Turkey. Ideally you need air power and heavy cavalry (tanks etc) to defend your region from violence. Whatever you do don’t trust the Russians.
9-What’s your recommendation for Kurdish leaders to do in this situation and to protect the Kurdistan region in current situation?
Make deals with Turkey, sort out a source of air power, artillery and cavalry, make plans to defend the region. But keep on with the democratic / diplomatic internal process in Iraq to try and bring about a lasting stability. Unfortunately I think Iraq is going to have to start killing militants without trial etc. to secure the nation.
The Unratified treaty of Sevres (1920) set up a Kurdish state including the Kurdish areas in Modern Turkey as well as MOsul province. British troops were at the time in TEMPORARY occupation of Mosul.
It was only when Mustafa Kemal abrogated the Sevres treaty and reoccupied Kurdistan that Britain decided to add Mosul to the new Iraq Kingdom that was being created fpr Prince Faisal (He of Lawrence of Arabia) to compensate him for the French stopping him become King of Syria.
Joe in tiresome history mode.
Sorry.
Thank you all for this feedback, I hope it helps Farhad.
‘Thank you all for this feedback, I hope it helps Farhad’ (Ellee)
It’s the thought that counts.